Military Effects on Political Stability: A Seemingly Unrelated Regression (Sur) Model Applied To MENA Countries

Matt Hewlett
ORCID: 0000-0003-2000-356X
E-mail: mhewlett@gwu.edu

Global Politics Review
Vol. 7, no. 1-2 (2022): 47-66.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6320147
GPR ID: 2464-9929_v07_i1-2_p047
Received: August 08, 2021. Accepted: January 13, 2022. Published: March 2, 2022.

ABSTRACT: Within the literature, there are two contrasting views about whether military interventions affect a region’s stability. One body of research indicates that military interventions positively influence political stability. The other body suggests that military interventions decrease stability within a region. In response to the two contrasting views regarding the impact of military intervention on political stability, the researcher hypothesizes that military interventions undermine the conditions for political stability and that an increase in levels of military hostility will negatively affect all factors underlying political stability within the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). To test these hypotheses, the researcher uses data gathered between 1984–2010, compiled by the International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) and the Militarized Interstate Dispute (MID) Project. The findings indicate that as levels of military hostility rise within MENA, religious and ethnic tensions are likely to increase, while law and order is likely to decrease. This provides further evidence that military intervention negatively affects political stability.

Keywords:  military intervention, political stability, conflict, Middle East, North Africa.

Copyright by the Author. This is an Open Access article licensed by Global Politics Review under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons BY-NC 4.0.

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